Can humans “grasp” exponential growth?
Most people “get it” but greatly underestimate it.
Example: I want you to imagine taking one foot steps. Now take 30 of them… have far have you travelled? 30 feet of course. Very easy for the human mind to compute and imagine.
Now I want you (with all new rubber-man super powers) to double the length of your stride with every step. So the first step is 1 foot, then 2 feet, 4, 8, 16, etc. How far do you think you will have traveled by step 30? Just guess! Was your answer over half a billion feet? Several times around the planet? Probably not. See what I mean?
Why do I bring this up? Because everyone underestimates exponential growth. That’s why people think self-driving cars, artificial general intelligence, gene editing treatments, etc. is all 20 or 30 years away from mainstream.
What’s this have to do with your money?
In the year 2,000 it cost about $300,000,000 to sequence your genome, in 2010 it was around $15,000,000, 5 years ago it was down to about $5,000, in 2020 it was less than $500. CRISPR gene editing, exponential drops in sequencing costs, combined with exponential growth in A.I. programming, combined with exponential processing power to power that A.I.,,, and even potential step-change processing using quantum computers…. all adds up to some serious potential for major healthcare disruption in the near future! How major??? How about curing every known genetic disease on Earth… and then using gene editing to cure things not caused by genes, and even putting a stop to the aging process entirely. Yeah, Yeah,, I’m a quack…. but I see this on the horizon and plan to use 2021 to buy up great companies focused on this genetic revolution. Many people will of course laugh at me and tell me I’m just going to lose all my money… “that stuff isn’t happening until 2050,,, at least,,,” they’ll say. I heard the same thing when I wrote this article 6 months ago: Why I had to invest $30,000 in Tesla (It’s worth $150K right now… so…. yeah.)
I do believe multiple companies WILL 10X, and a couple will 100X as the World transitions to genetic healthcare. The hard part will be separating the winners from the losers before then. This will involve research, patience, and a bit of luck. But if you don’t want those crappy index fund returns,,, this is the work you have to do. Index funds are great for people who don’t want to do the research (passive investors), but if you are looking for better than average it takes some effort.
I currently have positions in CRSP and NVTA. I plan to dollar-cost-average (DCA) into many genomic related stocks in 2021 per my research, and as I do I will keep you posted.
Not financial advice.
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C.J. is the blogger behind the Vow of Practicality. “Let’s grow your wealth, increase your productivity, and maximize your happiness.”